Bitcoin on-chain activity lags despite price surge, analysts note


 ​[[{“value”:”Bitcoin on-chain activity lags despite price surge, analysts note By

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Published Mar 25, 2024 10:39AM ET

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Despite Bitcoin‘s price reaching record highs above $70,000, the real economic activity on its blockchain shows a marked slowdown from the frenetic pace of the 2021 bull market, according to data from Glassnode. 

This trend suggests a strong holding sentiment among investors, with many apparently waiting for even higher prices before they consider selling their Bitcoin holdings.

Blockware Solutions analysts highlighted in their latest newsletter that the average U.S. dollar value of on-chain Bitcoin transfers remains significantly lower than the peaks observed during 2021. “Average on-chain transfer volume is well below the 2021 bull market peak. Hardly any value is being moved on-chain,” they noted, highlighting the reluctance among holders to sell at current price levels.

Glassnode’s data, which measures the dollar value of Bitcoin transferred on-chain, shows that both the seven-day and 14-day average mean transfer volumes are currently below $200,000—far from the $1 million-plus levels seen in 2021. This decline in on-chain volume is partly attributed to the growing prominence of Nasdaq-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have concentrated spot volume away from the blockchain.

Other indicators also reflect a strong ‘hodl’ pattern among investors who weathered the 2022 bear market. For instance, the percentage of Bitcoin supply last active between three and five years ago is on the rise. Several analysts are predicting that Bitcoin’s price could rally into six figures in the coming months, with some setting their targets above the $150,000 mark.

“Once we see the price really start to move, that’s when on-chain volume will surge. Older coins will move to exchanges to be sold. Until then, low on-chain volume is a sign of supply-side illiquidity,” Blockware analysts explained.

At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $67,700, up 5% on a 24-hour basis. The broader market, as measured by the CoinDesk 20 Index, also saw a 5% uplift, reflecting a cautiously optimistic sentiment across the cryptocurrency sector.

Bitcoin on-chain activity lags despite price surge, analysts note

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