The crypto bear market has perplexed analysts, but recent short-term Bitcoin and altcoin gains have reignited investor hopes.
The global cryptocurrency market has been in a drawn out downtrend, with prices of top cryptos left in tatters following the collapse of FTX. The top two coins, Bitcoin and Ethereum are so far down by over 20% and 30% respectively this month.
While short-term gains offered the market a bit of respite in the bearish winter, there are few clear catalysts for a price rise in the near future. This, however, has not deterred analysts from speculating whether the bear market is close to an end or not.
The crypto market cap is now at $828.74 billion, appreciating by 5.93% over the last day, fueling some traders’ hopes.
Crypto Bear Market Recovery on the Cards
Pseudonymous analyst and trader SmartContracter told his 214,000 Twitter followers that macro cycle-wise, BTC seemed to be pretty close to a bottom. Bitcoin price near the bottom could mark the end of the bear market.
Basing their thesis on the BTC three-day chart, the analyst believed that the price is starting to look like there is an ending diagonal forming to finish the bear market ABC pattern.
Analyst RektCapital told his 330,000 followers that exchange contagion had become a historical tendency. It occurs close to the absolute BTC bear market bottom. He further said that in previous BTC cycles, it was Bitmex that caused the fall. Prior to that, it was Mt Gox, and this time it is FTX.
Pseudonymous analyst On-Chain College looked at the BTC Mayer Multiple chart to highlight periods where Bitcoin was oversold compared to its 200-day moving average. The analyst said that such periods are marked with fear, dejection, and anger.
The analyst also added that such periods have historically provided some of the best long-term value zones from where a positive rebound has happened.
Analyzing the Bottom
Analyst TradingShot, in a TradingView post, highlighted that two weeks ago, BTC saw the strongest weekly volume in over a year. The same could signal a trend reversal to bullish.
<img decoding="async" width="850" height="377" src="https://s32659.pcdn.co/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Screenshot-2022-11-23-at-8.27.09-PM-850×377.png" alt="Bitcoin (BTC) one-week chart Source: TradingView
The analyst pointed out that, on a one-week chart, a drastic rise in volume tends to be associated with trend reversals on the Bitcoin chart. The trade volume spike was seen between Nov. 19, 2018, and May 13, 2019, and was the bottom formation of that bear cycle.
However, analyst Ecoinometrics suggested that bad news could still hit BTC in certain stressful financial conditions.
Over the past 13 years, Bitcoin has only experienced trying financial conditions a handful of times. Thus, the analyst expects more bad news to come.
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